Initial CapitalPortfolio ValueCashTotalP&LP&L %2011 P&L %
£100,000£260,949.09£86,326.45£347,275.54£247,275.54247.28%12.42%

Thursday update

October 8th, 2009 by RunningCapital

A day where I sat on my hands, plenty of movement in my holdings but the net effect was just slightly positive.

One (automatic) trade to report, I was stopped out of the last of the FTSE 100 short, closing £3 per pt @ 5153 at break-even. The market still hasn’t broken through to a new high so I may re-enter with a short position if I can time it right.

Nothing much of note today in the portfolio, Laird (LRD) was down strongly again - sticking with it for now and may add more one lot more if it declines to 180p area. Dialight still trying to crack the 200p level with more large trades going through today. Finally an interesting RNS from Niger Uranium (URU) this afternoon, most notably they commented on the discount that URU trades at versus the value of their shareholding in Kalahari Minerals (KAH) and that “the Board will be considering the options for addressing this discount”. The discount at the close today stands at around 30% so it will be interesting to see what action URU takes to close this.

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Overtrading…

October 7th, 2009 by RunningCapital

My buying activity has noticeably picked up over the last few days with several top ups & new positions opened and I am beginning to feel that I might be overcooking it at this level. Sure the shares I have bought seem to have good upside but there have been fat gains gathered already this year and I do slightly get the feeling that I should actually be reducing rather than adding and am perhaps pushing my luck in the final quarter of the year. However the fruitful market conditions (& greed!) is winning out for now. There could be a sudden reversal of strategy at some point though.

All that said I’ve bought 3 shares today & done just one small top slice on a holding. First I’ve taken a small amount off the table in Dialight (DIA), this one has zoomed up this week and there have been some very interesting chunky trades today. On balance I’ve decided to exercise some caution and sold £5 per pt @ 190p to bank £265 (20%). A break over 200p would be a very bullish move but it’ll will need some more strong buying to breach that level, fingers crossed.

The new trades… First thing this morning I bought Platinum Australia (PLAA), getting 7500 shares @ 46.89p. This share is (rather obviously) a platinum play, dual listed in the UK and Australia and recently completed a placing at the 44p level. With that now out of the way I am looking for the shares to quickly move back up towards May levels, around 60p.

Next was a further purchase of Geong International (GNG), another company that has recently done a share placing. There were some sellers from the placing but the buying today has hopefully mopped those shares up leaving the path clear for a good run into the interim results due at the start of December.

Lastly I couldn’t resist buying some more Laird (LRD) shares on the big fall today (down 6.5%), I missed getting some under 200p but managed to get £20 per pt @ 204p. Couldn’t see any reason for the fall and have simply put it down to selling pressure. There is an interim management statement due this month, going by last year towards the end of the month. I expect that to confirm the improving trend of increasing orders.

Overall the portfolio edged up today and is back at a high, just short of a 100% gain for the year. Results season is kicking off over in America tonight with Alcoa, hopefully the results over the next few weeks will overall continue to surprise on the upside and help push the markets towards yet another leg up.

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September Déjà vu?

October 6th, 2009 by RunningCapital

The first couple of days in September saw some decent falls, followed by a strong upward move. Its looking a bit familiar so far in October and is benefiting the portfolio too.

I’ve been stopped out of the remainder my FTSE 250 position at breakeven, buying £1 per pt @ 9150 and with the surge upwards I’ve halved my FTSE 100 short @ 5109, taking a £132 profit. The remaining £3 per pt short will be closed at breakeven if the index gets there.

I’ve also added to my Eros International (EROS) position, buying £20 per pt @ 190p. There looks to be a large seller around the 200p level but some big trades have gone through today so some progress is being made there. I will be happy to add if it falls further as the recent trading statement was very bullish on current business performance.

I’ve also opened another new position, buying 700 shares & £10 per pt of Telecity (TCY) at 324p. TCY looks an expensive share on earnings metrics but is in a real growth sector, computing data centers, and business looks to be going very well. It is also a potential takeover target. The share price has done nothing much over the last 3 months, compared to the rest of the market and I think it has some catching up to do.

A happy bunny today after the last couple of days, most shares in the portfolio are up with the stand out performer the RBS prefs, up over 10% so far this week. Happy to sit on my long positions for now and see if the market can make new highs for the year.

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Bouncing back

October 5th, 2009 by RunningCapital

The first full week of October and its got off to a positive start, for my portfolio anyway. With the general market about flat as I type its pleasing to see the portfolio up in value today. I remain cautious on putting more money to work right now but there are some shares that I am close to topping up on.

I did buy into a company that I’ve had on my watchlist for the last few months first thing this morning, Eros International (EROS). EROS is a media and entertainment company based in India that commissions, produces and distributes, mostly Indian, films. It announced this morning that trading was going well and it plans to list on the Bombay Stock Exchange by the end of its financial year (ending March 2010). All this is positive news, I see EROS as being in growth sector, having aggressive plans to expand the business and the financial size to compete with other companies in the same sector. So on a current year PE of 7 and the Indian listing to bring in new investors I went long and bought 2000 shares at 195.6p.

I also trimmed my FTSE shorts shortly after the open, there may still be further downside but the US market held up well after the negative jobs report on Friday and so it seemed sensible to take some profit. I bought £2 per pt of the FTSE 100 short at 4981 and £0.5 per pt of the FTSE 250 short at 8940 to take a decent £449 profit. The rest stays for now but at the very least I will close them at breakeven.

After some large-ish falls last week its good to see a few risers today, topping the list is Dialight (DIA), up 11%, with some chunky trades going through and more large orders on the order book. I am sure its also being boosted by being bought again by the Naked Trader, Robbie Burns, who has a big private investor following. RCG Holdings (RCG) is up today, holding above its recent placing price - glad I didn’t panic sell there on Friday. Leisure & Gaming (LNG), Laird (LRD) and Unitech Corporate Parks (UCP) are also up today.

Hopefully the rest of the week can carry on in a similar way!

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Jacques Vert - Increased broker forecasts

October 5th, 2009 by RunningCapital

Following Jacques Vert’s (JQV) positive AGM statement last week the two brokers covering the share have upgraded their forecasts for the year ending Apr-2010.

For 2010 Seymour Pierce are now forecasting a pre-tax profit of £4m and Numis a pre-tax profit of £4.3m, an impressive upgrade from the £2.2m average that was being forecast before the AGM statement and a big turnaround from last year when a loss was recorded. So in 6 months time JQV are expected to have done over £4m in profit and their cash balance is forecast to stand at £7m plus.

The share price has moved up this week but at under 9p to buy Jacques Vert (JQV) still looks much too cheap to me.

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Red October

October 2nd, 2009 by RunningCapital

It has definitely been a weak start to October and the last quarter of the year. As with any big market drops the portfolio is taking some hits, with some decent falls today. However there are still one or two bright spots.

Two trades today. This morning I added to my Laird (LRD) position buying another 1000 shares at 193p taking advantage of the share price weakness. I am happy to increase my exposure here further on any further decent falls, it is certainly volatile so may provide a further opportunity to top up.

The second trade was an enforced one in TGE Marine (TGE). The share price shot up today on very large volume and it looked like something was up and sure enough this afternoon a tender offer was announced at £37.50 to delist the company and take it private again. It looks a done deal and although the price is a disappointment it does offer a quick return on my recent investment. I decide to sell the shares in the market at £37 rather than go through the administrative procedure to tender the shares at £37.50 as the price difference is too small to make the wait worthwhile and this sell off might produce an interesting opportunity or two for the cash. 175 shares were sold @ £37, netting a total profit of £890 (16%).

Elsewhere RCG Holdings (RCG) has slipped below its recent placing price today and the recent top up of 10,000 shares is close to getting cut, there is some support in the order book though so I haven’t got rid just yet. Mostly small falls elsewhere in the portfolio, with the FTSE 100 & 250 shorts racking up a nice profit. I was tempted to top slice some profit there earlier this afternoon but decided to hold off and see how the US market finishes up.

Overall pleased its the weekend and hoping next week turns out to be more profitable than this one!

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Satisfactory September

October 2nd, 2009 by RunningCapital

September started with worries about a market sell off but finished with the market making new highs for the year, the FTSE 100 finished up 4.5% for the month and the FTSE 250 up 3.7%.

The RunningCapital portfolio managed to keep pace with the market gains, growing 4.5% in September despite running significant cash balances during the month. It now stands just 5% off doubling this year. RCG Holdings (RCG) was a big winner in September finishing up 26%, whilst Soco (SIA) and Niger Uranium (URU) also posted decent positive returns. The biggest winner percentage wise was Sunkar Resources (SKR) of course, rising by around 100% before I sold it at 25p - which turned about to be far to early as it closed today at over 40p, doh.

I ended the month running a couple of shorts on the FTSE 100 & 250, providing some portfolio insurance in case of a market sell off and one day in October has started badly, with an 80 point fall today. Perhaps its the start of a decent sell off or is it just another one day fall to be met with strong buying? Not a clue so far, but whatever happens hopefully the portfolio can outperform the market in October.

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One trade to start the month

October 1st, 2009 by RunningCapital

One trade to report today, another bio-tech firm purchase. I picked up a small amount of Vernalis (VER) this afternoon, buying 3000 shares @ 96p. This share caught my eye last month when it announced a major tie-up with GlaxoSmithKline. The balance sheet also appealed as they are funded with plenty of cash (through to 2011) and there has been a steady stream of good news throughout the year. The share price is currently in a good uptrend and hopefully buying on weakness will to pay off with this one.

The main market has been pretty weak today so it is good to see the portfolio holding up well, of course the FTSE shorts placed a few days ago are nicely in profit now but with the market fairly volatile that can change quickly!

Dialight (DIA) zoomed up today as they announced a significant project win, underlining the growth potential of their business sectors. Unitech Corporate Parks (UCP) was unchanged but there has been some good buying over the last couple of days, just what is needed to clear the stale holders that are still in this share. Despite being up over 170% for the year I think there is more to come with UCP.

Overall I would be happy to top up on several of the current portfolio holdings if the market continues to be weak in the coming days, in fact I think it would be healthy for the market to take a little dip.

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Two new trades

September 30th, 2009 by RunningCapital

A couple of trades today.

I noticed some good volume coming in today on recent purchase Consort Medical (CSRT) and on that basis topped up with another 500 shares. I have now got a decent holding here of 2000 shares & £5 per pt long spreadbet with an average of just over 400p and already one useful dividend collected. 500p remains the short term target.

I’ve been looking at a few bio-tech companies recently, its a sector I have no exposure to currently and today have bought into Asterand (ATD). I like this company because it’s starting to generate profits, has a solid balance sheet with no debt and is a large player in a growing niche sector. Being ISA-able also helps. I’ve picked up 15,000 shares @ 24.214p.

Elsewhere the RBS prefs (RBS-PR) have been weak on the back of comments by Stephen Hester of RBS about the potential of EU forced coupon deferrals. I am happy with my exposure here and if there is a really big sell off would happily buy more, in the long term they will offer a good return in almost all credible scenarios. New purchase Jacques Vert (JQV) has moved up nicely today Niger Uranium (URU) is bouncing back after recent weakness.

I’m happy with FTSE shorts that I’ve placed, feeling more comfortable with some insurance against my longs. So its the start of October tomorrow, lets see if the much heralded big sell off arrives with it…

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Porfolio rebalanced with added insurance

September 29th, 2009 by RunningCapital

Lots of trades yesterday and there a bit of a mammoth update! I moved into a couple of new positions, rebought two old favourites, added to some positions and closed others – a busy day.

The market remains strong, holding over 5000 and that continues to surprise people, the talk now is that October could see a big sell off. I remain unsure about what will happen but for some peace of mind I used the big up day in the market yesterday to get short the FTSE 100 & FTSE 250. I sold £8 per pt of FTSE 100 at 5153 and £1.50 per pt of the FTSE 250 at 9150. The positions are certainly not a call on the short-term market direction because frankly I am rubbish at that! I continue to be substantially invested so the shorts will act as a hedge to the longs and provide some insurance in case of any big down days.

Lots of trades, first the positions I closed. A successful trade was Helphire Group (HHR), I sold £60 per pt @ 42.5p to take a £350 (16%) profit. A trading statement is due in a couple of weeks and although it looks like all the bad news is in the price I wasn’t prepared to take the risk so used the recent bounce to close the position.

I closed my losing Serica Energy (SQZ) position yesterday, selling 8000 shares at 54.125p average taking a £772 loss (-10%). Bad timing in opening the position and there was bad news out yesterday, the temporary closure of their only revenue producing asset so I decided to exit to minimise my losses. Other shares in the oil sector have done really well in the time I’ve held SQZ so my pick here was very poor. Must do better next time.

Next is Polo Resources (PRL), I closed the position selling 70,000 shares @ 4.75p taking a £375 loss (-10%). I would have kept the position open but wanted to switch the funds into my new Jacques Vert (JQV) position and as I already have exposure to the Extract Resources story, via Niger Uranium (URU), PRL was the easiest position to close.

I part closed a couple of positions, selling 7833 shares in Unitech (UCP) @ 23.25p. Its trading in a 20-24p range at the moment and I wanted to reduce my exposure here as I am looking at other positions. £636 profit taken (59.4%), I am still long 72,612 shares and looking for at least 30p by the end of the year. I also trimmed my Dart Group (DTG) position, selling £25 per pt @ 52p taking a small £136 loss (-4.15%). I am now long £225 per pt. Again, still bullish on Dart but for the time being it seems stuck between 50p & 55p.

A couple of top ups to report, I added to my RCG Holdings (RCG) position. This continues to be the cheapest share I hold on a price to earnings ratio basis with corporate governance / management trust issues holding it back. I continue to believe that patience will pay off here and with the news of a small placing at 78p I decided to increase my long exposure by buying 10,000 shares at 80p. If the share price falls below the placing price I will probably sell these shares whilst keeping my longer term 30,000 share position open.

I’ve also added to my TGE Marine (TGE) position, I am now long 175 shares at an average price of 3150p. These have looked cheap for a while given the cash on the balance sheet and historic earnings but the worry was that going forward into 2010 and beyond the company would see a virtually empty order book and would move from profit into loss. Their recent outlook statement was more positive than I expected, with management more becoming optimistic on the future. This gave me the confidence to buy back into the share and I am looking for a move up to 4000p for starters. If economic conditions continue to improve then TGE could turn out to be a real long-term winner.

I’ve re-entered an old favourite, buying 12,500 shares in Costain (COST) at 27.88p. I closed my position here last month after the share price seemed to have got a little ahead of business performance. It has dropped 20% since then and I am happy to start accumulating at this price. New management has been in place for the last couple of years and have got a clear, focused strategy targeting large blue chip contracts. I believe that COST could outperform over the next couple of years and see it’s as a nice share to tuck away for the longer term.

I picked up some shares in Man Group (EMG) too, buying 1000 shares at just over 300p. I got my sale of these a few weeks back (at 255p) completely wrong and should just have held them. I am a long-term bull on Man Group and will use any share price weakness to increase my position.

Two new positions, first Jacques Vert (JQV) a small cap retailer that announced yesterday it was trading ahead of expectations for the year. I’ve got 63500 shares at an average price of 8p. I’ve had JQV on my watchlist for a little while now as it has got a solid balance sheet and looked cheap but hadn’t opened a position because I couldn’t see a catalyst to move the share price. Like for like sales look to have been stabilised and the cost cutting that happened last year is bearing fruit. The operating leverage here could really work to JQV’s benefit and with an enterprise value of under £11m and profits for 2010 to come in at £2.5m or greater JQV should be trading at least 50% higher.

I also made an opportunistic purchase of some shares in Geong International (GNG). This is a Chinese based software company recently did a fundraising at 38p and when the shares dipped below that mark I managed to pick up 7,500 shares @ 35.75p. I tried for more but that was all that was available online. This could be an excellent long-term winner but as always with these Chinese based companies there are some significant question marks. At the current price though they are pretty much in the price, a trading statement due next month should provide some further detail on how the business is performing.

Elsewhere other positions are holding up well, Soco and Consort consolidating after recent rises. Niger Uranium (URU) has dropped back with the recent weakness in Extract Resources (ASX:EXT) and is getting close to the level where I would be a buyer again.

Not sure what October will bring but am happy with the way the portfolio is positioned right now.

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