Initial CapitalPortfolio ValueCashTotalP&LP&L %2010 P&L %
£100,000£224,086.24£23,235.26£247,321.50£147,321.50147.32%25.55%

For a change…

December 2nd, 2009 by RunningCapital

…good news out from a couple of holdings this morning.

First Geong International (GNG), a China based software company, reported their interim results for the six month period ended 30 September 2009. The results were better than I expected on nearly all the key metrics & read really well. A positive outlook with a healthy order book and given that the second half of the year is normally better than the first there is the possibility that they will beat current market forecasts, although the company played that down this morning.

The shares are up over 8% today & I am more than happy to keep hold of these as a long term play - the potential here is considerable.

The second bit of news was from Globus Maritime (GLBS), a Greece based shipping company. It announced it had sold another 2 ships leaving them with 2 remaining vessels, both currently chartered out, and a very healthy balance sheet. It looks like management believe that they will be able to buy newer, more attractive vessels at some point in the future at a cheaper valuations. After receiving the proceeds from the ship sales they will have $20m USD in net cash and 2 ships worth a minimum of $50m USD versus a market cap of just $36m USD (based on share price of 73.5p = market cap of £21.23m @ GBPUSD of 1.665). That looks too cheap to me & share price just north of 100p looks justified.

The excellent beans4tea posted about Globus on the Motley Fool message board this morning & his figures match up with mine:

http://boards.fool.co.uk/Message.asp?mid=11765389&sort=whole#11766002

Overall another good day for the portfolio, Kryso Resources (KYS) continues to move strongly upwards - it might be due a retrace soon but I am holding onto my shares for now. Unitech Corporate Parks (UCP) is trying to move out of its trading range today, if it can finally break over 25p it could quickly move to 30p. Lastly, despite good news yesterday out from Eros (EROS) on excellent takings for their new movie, De Dana Dan, and strong buying off the back of it the share price is unchanged. There is still a large seller around but surely they will be finished soon and it certainly looks oversold at these levels and ripe for a bounce back.

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Stockchallenge

December 1st, 2009 by RunningCapital

I hadn’t visited the www.stockchallenge.co.uk website for a while, so it was a pleasant surprise to see RunningCapital still doing well in the annual challenge, in 58th position, despite one of the five picks Aero Inventory (AI.) going bust! Thankfully it had long since dropped off my watchlist of shares to buy.

For a bit of fun I also entered the December monthly competition. My five picks that I hope to do well this month, all long are:

Kryso Resources (KYS), Eros International (EROS), CSR (CSR), Leisure & Gaming (LNG) and Globus Maritime (GLBS)

Kryso has certainly started the month well and Globus has ticked up a little today. I will check back at the end of the month to see how they performed.

A good start for portfolio in December today, with several holdings up nicely. A good finish to the year would be very welcome.

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November - a review

November 30th, 2009 by RunningCapital

A disappointing performance in November with a negative performance. The portfolio is now well off its high for the year, by around 10%.

I’ve got some of my recently opened positions wrong and the shares that have performed well over the last few months have mostly underperformed over the last 6 weeks or so.

Eros International (EROS), Polo Resources (PRL) and Hirco (HRCO) are all recent purchases that are all well down, however I still see reasons to hold all three and have recently added to the EROS & PRL positions.

The big disappointment in November was the Niger Uranium (URU) special dividend, this would have generated real value for holders. The share price had already risen in anticipation of the dividend being approved, so when surprising it was voted down the share price was quick to drop back. It was badly handled by management and I got out as quickly as I could at 35p. Fortunately still locking in a good profit but far less than I was expecting. I now prefer to invest in Polo Resources (PRL) to gain exposure to the Extract Resources (ASX:EXT) story.

I remain hopefully of a good December to close the year, traditionally its a strong month for the market but this year being far from typical I don’t think that counts for much!

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Stalled

October 20th, 2009 by RunningCapital

There are plenty of adjectives that I could use to describe the portfolio performance over the last week, none of them positive and few of them printable without the extensive use of asterisks! An extremely frustrating performance with the value of the portfolio declining as the market has continued to move upwards.

A few shares have moved higher but far too many have stayed static or declined. So I’ve gone back to the portfolio and started to assess each share, thinking about each position as if I didn’t hold already & to decide what action (buy, sell or hold) I should take.

Since the last update I’ve sold Southern Cross, (SCHE), 5000 shares gone at 124.4p for a £94 loss. It has done precisely nothing whilst the market has powered up and I’ve lost patience. A trading statement is due soon and I will look another look at it off the back of that.

I also cut my Unitech Corporate Parks (UCP) position last week. There are still plenty of sellers capping the share price in the 22/23p area but now there are some large trades going through so the stale holders are gradually being cleared out. The trading range of 20p/24p is still intact & on that basis I picked up 10,000 shares @ 19.75p on Monday morning (another 15k was left on the order book unfilled). I am happy to increase my holding at that level or below with the belief that downside is limited below 20p and that there are signs of commercial rental demand improving in India. £226.12 per pt was sold @ 22.5p netting £1058 profit and 10,000 shares bought back at 19.75p Now long £500 (i.e 50,000 shares) per pt and 10,000 shares.

Also being reduced is Dart Group (DTG), trimming the position by £50 per pt, sold @ 53p for a loss of £8.70. Now long £175 per pt. Again there is a persistent seller at 55p and little volume to clear them out, although there was some interest in the shares at the end of last week. Dart, the owners of airline Jet2.com, are due to report interim results on Thursday, 19 November and hopefully that will generate some buying interest as the share still looks cheap to me.

It hasn’t all been selling as I’ve topped up on a couple of tech plays that haven’t fully participated in the market strength over the last month. First up I added £10 per pt to my Telecity (TCY) position @ 337.6p first thing last Wednesday morning. Its moved up nicely since then and I expect it to go higher in anticipation of a bullish trading statement due in the next few weeks. It might look expensive on normal metrics but this is a clear leader in its field with a premium product and great revenue visibility. It deserves its high rating.

I added to my Laird position, getting £20 per pt @ 199.9p. This one can be very volatile and could easily be back at 190p by the end of the next trading session, or equally over 220p (hopefully). With that in mind I sold £10 per pt @ 214p to bank a small £140 profit and am happy to run the rest (total position is 5000 shares). Its struggled to get past the 220p level, so cracking that is the next step and could lead to some really good gains. KBC upgraded LRD to a buy on Monday with a price target of 260p, so I am expecting the trading statement due at the end of the month to be positive, there are expectations of a good bounce back in business since the start of the year, it also has a chunky dividend yield at this price.

The portfolio performance has been held back by recent weakness in RCG Holdings (RCG) which has fallen back from the high 80’s to the low 80’. As a long term hold I am ignoring these price fluctuations, as the gains could be very considerable from here with the share so lowly rated whilst business performance continues to impress.

Recent purchases, Geong (GNG) and Platinum Australia (PLAA), are helping offset the RCG weakness as they are both nicely in profit now. I’ve also increased my holdings in Eros International (EROS) and Leisure and Gaming (LNG) in recent days. Eros seems to be consolidating just below the 200p level that its failed to get over a couple of times recently, I am expecting it to have another go soon.

Leisure and Gaming’s (LNG) Q3 update last week impressed me, costs are firmly under control and it emerged from its weakest quarter with a small profit despite adverse sports betting results. These things always even themselves out and Q4 looks to have got off to a good start. I believe that business momentum will really pick up over the next six months and a simple buy & hold approach will see some very good rewards. I am looking for the share price to be in the mid 20p range come next summer, which would be a very satisfying 150% return from the current level.

I continue to review the positions I currently hold and there may be further sales over the rest of the week, I need to get the recent under performance to the market turned around quickly.

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Up, Up, Up

October 12th, 2009 by RunningCapital

The portfolio is up again today on a quiet day for news. Pretty much sitting on my positions right now but I have decided to take my profits on the Man Group position (EMG) this afternoon. They have been on a great run since their trading statement a couple of weeks ago and are up 15% in double quick time and a quick gain here was hard to turn down. The sale banked a £460 profit (15%).

I’ve also trimmed some more of the Dialight position (DIA), selling 1000 shares @ 207p to book a £710 profit (52.6%). Now running with 2500 shares which seems about right given the rapid run up here, I’d be inclined to add to my position on a large fall which I am not ruling out as it can be volatile.

My last trade is some portfolio insurance, buying some exposure to S&P 500 990 put option via a spreadbet. With volatility being very low this is a relatively cheap way of getting some downside protection. It expires in mid December so clearly its a bet on a decent fall in the market over the next 4-6 weeks. If it expires worthless then hopefully the portfolio will have gone up more than enough to compensate.

Good to see Telecity moving up today (TCY), seems like its gathering some momentum, hoping for a bullish trading statement here soon. Also heading upwards are Geong (GNG), a decent profit building with this small cap software play now, and Niger Uranium (URU) continues its recent revival.

The FTSE 100/250 is making new highs for the year again today and looking strong. Which makes me nervous as I detect more and more complacency in the market. I will continue to top slice and trade around the portfolio where I see opportunities and gradually look to reduce exposure if the market continues to move higher. There are several stale positions in the portfolio that I should perhaps cut too, I’d hate to give back a lot of the gains accumulated so far this year.

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100% return for the year so far

October 12th, 2009 by RunningCapital

A good finish to the week on Friday with the portfolio cracking the 100% gain for the year. No trades, just letting existing positions run.

A jump in the share price Niger Uranium (URU) helped boost the portfolio, Extract Resources (ASX:EXT) uranium resource just keeps getting better & better and it looks like there is a lot more value here still. Elsewhere it was a quiet Friday

Fingers crossed that the gains can continue into this week.

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Thursday update

October 8th, 2009 by RunningCapital

A day where I sat on my hands, plenty of movement in my holdings but the net effect was just slightly positive.

One (automatic) trade to report, I was stopped out of the last of the FTSE 100 short, closing £3 per pt @ 5153 at break-even. The market still hasn’t broken through to a new high so I may re-enter with a short position if I can time it right.

Nothing much of note today in the portfolio, Laird (LRD) was down strongly again - sticking with it for now and may add more one lot more if it declines to 180p area. Dialight still trying to crack the 200p level with more large trades going through today. Finally an interesting RNS from Niger Uranium (URU) this afternoon, most notably they commented on the discount that URU trades at versus the value of their shareholding in Kalahari Minerals (KAH) and that “the Board will be considering the options for addressing this discount”. The discount at the close today stands at around 30% so it will be interesting to see what action URU takes to close this.

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Overtrading…

October 7th, 2009 by RunningCapital

My buying activity has noticeably picked up over the last few days with several top ups & new positions opened and I am beginning to feel that I might be overcooking it at this level. Sure the shares I have bought seem to have good upside but there have been fat gains gathered already this year and I do slightly get the feeling that I should actually be reducing rather than adding and am perhaps pushing my luck in the final quarter of the year. However the fruitful market conditions (& greed!) is winning out for now. There could be a sudden reversal of strategy at some point though.

All that said I’ve bought 3 shares today & done just one small top slice on a holding. First I’ve taken a small amount off the table in Dialight (DIA), this one has zoomed up this week and there have been some very interesting chunky trades today. On balance I’ve decided to exercise some caution and sold £5 per pt @ 190p to bank £265 (20%). A break over 200p would be a very bullish move but it’ll will need some more strong buying to breach that level, fingers crossed.

The new trades… First thing this morning I bought Platinum Australia (PLAA), getting 7500 shares @ 46.89p. This share is (rather obviously) a platinum play, dual listed in the UK and Australia and recently completed a placing at the 44p level. With that now out of the way I am looking for the shares to quickly move back up towards May levels, around 60p.

Next was a further purchase of Geong International (GNG), another company that has recently done a share placing. There were some sellers from the placing but the buying today has hopefully mopped those shares up leaving the path clear for a good run into the interim results due at the start of December.

Lastly I couldn’t resist buying some more Laird (LRD) shares on the big fall today (down 6.5%), I missed getting some under 200p but managed to get £20 per pt @ 204p. Couldn’t see any reason for the fall and have simply put it down to selling pressure. There is an interim management statement due this month, going by last year towards the end of the month. I expect that to confirm the improving trend of increasing orders.

Overall the portfolio edged up today and is back at a high, just short of a 100% gain for the year. Results season is kicking off over in America tonight with Alcoa, hopefully the results over the next few weeks will overall continue to surprise on the upside and help push the markets towards yet another leg up.

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September Déjà vu?

October 6th, 2009 by RunningCapital

The first couple of days in September saw some decent falls, followed by a strong upward move. Its looking a bit familiar so far in October and is benefiting the portfolio too.

I’ve been stopped out of the remainder my FTSE 250 position at breakeven, buying £1 per pt @ 9150 and with the surge upwards I’ve halved my FTSE 100 short @ 5109, taking a £132 profit. The remaining £3 per pt short will be closed at breakeven if the index gets there.

I’ve also added to my Eros International (EROS) position, buying £20 per pt @ 190p. There looks to be a large seller around the 200p level but some big trades have gone through today so some progress is being made there. I will be happy to add if it falls further as the recent trading statement was very bullish on current business performance.

I’ve also opened another new position, buying 700 shares & £10 per pt of Telecity (TCY) at 324p. TCY looks an expensive share on earnings metrics but is in a real growth sector, computing data centers, and business looks to be going very well. It is also a potential takeover target. The share price has done nothing much over the last 3 months, compared to the rest of the market and I think it has some catching up to do.

A happy bunny today after the last couple of days, most shares in the portfolio are up with the stand out performer the RBS prefs, up over 10% so far this week. Happy to sit on my long positions for now and see if the market can make new highs for the year.

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Bouncing back

October 5th, 2009 by RunningCapital

The first full week of October and its got off to a positive start, for my portfolio anyway. With the general market about flat as I type its pleasing to see the portfolio up in value today. I remain cautious on putting more money to work right now but there are some shares that I am close to topping up on.

I did buy into a company that I’ve had on my watchlist for the last few months first thing this morning, Eros International (EROS). EROS is a media and entertainment company based in India that commissions, produces and distributes, mostly Indian, films. It announced this morning that trading was going well and it plans to list on the Bombay Stock Exchange by the end of its financial year (ending March 2010). All this is positive news, I see EROS as being in growth sector, having aggressive plans to expand the business and the financial size to compete with other companies in the same sector. So on a current year PE of 7 and the Indian listing to bring in new investors I went long and bought 2000 shares at 195.6p.

I also trimmed my FTSE shorts shortly after the open, there may still be further downside but the US market held up well after the negative jobs report on Friday and so it seemed sensible to take some profit. I bought £2 per pt of the FTSE 100 short at 4981 and £0.5 per pt of the FTSE 250 short at 8940 to take a decent £449 profit. The rest stays for now but at the very least I will close them at breakeven.

After some large-ish falls last week its good to see a few risers today, topping the list is Dialight (DIA), up 11%, with some chunky trades going through and more large orders on the order book. I am sure its also being boosted by being bought again by the Naked Trader, Robbie Burns, who has a big private investor following. RCG Holdings (RCG) is up today, holding above its recent placing price - glad I didn’t panic sell there on Friday. Leisure & Gaming (LNG), Laird (LRD) and Unitech Corporate Parks (UCP) are also up today.

Hopefully the rest of the week can carry on in a similar way!

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About RunningCapital

Private investor's blog. Real money. Real trades. Updated daily.