Renovo is a debt free, fully funded, biopharmaceutical product company, specialising in the discovery and development of drugs to reduce scarring, improve wound healing and enhance tissue regeneration. It aims to be first to market with a scar reduction pharmaceutical drug in the US and Europe. Its pipeline includes one drug in phase 3 clinical development, two drugs in phase 2 clinical development and numerous pre-clinical candidates.

It is reaching a crucial stage within the next 6 to 9 months, with its key Juvista product due to report phase III EU trial results in the first half of 2011. A successful trial would be very very good news & I’d expect the share price to be much higher than the current 25p level. The CEO reckons “multiples” of the current share price, but then he would say that wouldn’t he! Protecting the downside on a negative result is the fact they will have £25m to £30m in cash in mid 2011, no debt and have several other promising products in their pipeline.

There is other newsflow potential whilst waiting for the Juvista results, with Renovo targeting a cosmetic partner agreement for Juvidex which could quickly generate royalty income and they are also seeking partners to exploit Juvista in the large South American & Asian markets.

With a market cap of £48m at 25p and net cash of over £50m, Renovo looks like an excellent risk/reward play at the current price. Given the large volume in the past few trading days it appears others believe so to. RunningCapital took a position of 20,000 shares on Monday at 25p.

Jet2 - set to climb to new highs?

Dart Group (DTG), parent company of budget airline Jet2, last week reported that summer trading had been better than expected and just four months into their financial year were confident enough to say that results would be ahead of current expectations. Despite this positive update the share price remains below its recent high & the valuation very undemanding. I am extremely positive on the upside for the shares from this level (73p).

Dart Group PLC is an aviation services and distribution group specialising in:

* the operation of low cost and charter air services throughout Europe - Jet2
* the distribution of fresh produce, temperature-controlled and ambient products to supermarkets and wholesale markets throughout the United Kingdom - Fowler Welch Coolchain

Jet2 was launched in 2003 and after careful management over the last few years is now churning out a consistent, profitable performance. An enviable track record in the airline sector.

Fowler Welch is a growing logistics business with an expanding national geographic footprint and warehousing space.

I am a big fan of Dart Group due to its low valuation, put simply:

Share price = 73p
Market Cap = £100m

EPS last year = 10.48p
EPS forecast this year = 11.7p

Pre-tax profit last year = £22.2m
Pre-tax profit forecast this year = £26m (excludes £3m exceptional cost of Volcanic ash cloud disruption)

No debt, Net cash = £50m

Free Cash Flow last year = £20m

Dividend yield (forecast) = 1.92%

Net assets = £115.5m

Its market capitalisation is just over £100m yet Dart is generating consistent, growing profits (2009 should be viewed as an exceptionally good year due to several one off factors) with a free cash flow of over £20m per year. I think due to previous earnings disappointments when it was building Jet2 up in the mid 2000’s it remains off many institutions holding lists but as it continues to prove its earnings track record the share price should climb to reflect that and more people buy into the story.

I think its also important to note that Chairman & CEO Philip Meeson is now well into his 60s and at some point will be looking for an exit from the business, this will help concentrate his mind on share price performance given he owns over 40% of Dart group.

Following last week’s statement house broker Arden raised their full year forecast to £23m after deducting the £3m cost of the ash cloud disruption, growing to £28m the following year. Taking into account the strong cash generation, growing earnings, increasing dividend, strong management and growing brands of Jet2 and Fowler Welch Coolchain I think the share price should be at a minimum of 120p and upped RunningCapital’s holding immediately following last week’s positive trading statement.

I flagged up Cape’s (CIU) half year results yesterday, hoping that there would be news on a potential dividend and the proposed main market listing. Cape delivered on both today.

4p dividend at the interim stage means the total dividend for the year should come in around the 10p mark, a healthy 3.3% yield based on today’s share price. That alone should underpin the share price at the current level and attract income funds to invest.

The further good news is that they are going for a main market listing in Q2 2011. This should ensure further buying given Cape’s substantial discount to the rest of the oil services sector (even given their debt).

There was a slightly disappointing tone to the outlook, which I suspect is why the shares opened up negatively this morning. Management don’t see organic EPS growth until the second half of 2011, however they are looking for some bolt on acquisitions to boost growth. Given the lowly valuation, EPS should top 40p for 2010, that isn’t an issue right now.

Add to all that the fact that a takeover approach was turned down by management a couple of months ago and I see further upside, I plan to continue to hold and have an initial price target of 350p.

Its been a volatile, but profitable, summer. Doom & gloom has dominated the headlines but as we enter the business end of the year I am becoming more confident that there is further upside in the market and have positioned the portfolio accordingly, with little cash on the sidelines.

The macro data I’m seeing isn’t backing up the increasingly common view of a double dip. Valuations are attractive with strong trading being reported by many of the companies that I hold in the RunningCapital portfolio, backing this up is increased M&A activity. All this has given me confidence to continue to buy shares on weakness and I am holding off on taking profits on the positions that have gone well.

Looking forward, tomorrow sees Cape (CIU) report interim results. They have already said trading will be above original forecasts for the year. With a confident outlook and perhaps word on a main market listing or a dividend then I see good upside over the next few months. I am also expecting a trading statement from Irish based First Derivatives (FDP) within the next week.They have ambitious expansion plans and recent acquisitions should start to reap benefits soon, I expect them to confirm current trading is on track with a positive outlook.

Next Tuesday, September 14th, sees Debenhams (DEB) issue their year end trading update. I took a position in (DEB) a few weeks ago as sentiment in the sector seemed overly negative & already reflecting the more difficult trading environment coming for retailers in 2011. I do expect Debenhams to outperform the competition and be able to post good like for like figures in the next financial year, with the changes implemented by management over the last year having a positive impact. Also in July they refinancing their debt and this will enhance figures in 2011.

Now the summer is over, I might even start blogging here some more rather than just posting my trades on Twitter!

Outperforming the market but given too much back is a neat summary of the first six months of 2010. Unsurprisingly, its proved much tougher than 2009.

Individual stock mistakes in West China Cement (WCC), Quintain Estates (QED) & Polo Resources (POL) have hit the P&L. I let all three position run for too long & all took too large a position relative to the portfolio without tight enough stops. In short I’d become too complacent due to the excellent market performance since March 09.

Going forward I am looking for the market to rally in the near term, it feels too bearish right now. Beyond that I am unsure, the latest macro figures point to growth slowing but will it stabilise at a lower positive level or are we heading for a double-dip? I will look to manage risk well with good money management and above all protecting capital.

On a micro stock level there are plenty of reasons to be positive, one very nice feature of the current market is the increasing takeover activity at substantial premiums to the current market price. Unlike 2008/2009 companies seem more confident now to make approaches and are seeing value. If the current price weakness continues I think we will continue to see more of this.

The change in the market since late April has been quite dramatic. Volatility has exploded to the upside, the bears are in charge, its been better to sell market rallies rather than buy the dips and it feels more like the bad old days of 2008 rather than the continuing recovery story of the last 12 months.

With the Euro zone troubles growing over the last 6 weeks and talk of China slowing it was only the US that was providing a good growth story. The job numbers out on Friday were therefore a massive disappointment and with the stimulus gradually being withdrawn over the next 6 months there remains a big question mark over whether the private sector will step in and be the engine for growth going forward.

With the outlook for the market changing during Friday afternoon I decided to significantly raise the level of cash in the portfolio, reopen some FTSE down bets and reassess my strategy going forward.

Of course the market is now down around 15% from its highs and therefore some of this news is now in the price, perhaps all of it. I could be acting at the bottom of the market. However at best I see trading over the summer being choppy and perhaps trading within a range and at worst significant further downside. There are still positives out there, with companies reporting improving demand, turnover & profits plus stronger balances sheets, Asia forecast to continue its good economic growth, the US & UK economies are now both growing with positive GDP figures and expecting to grow through the rest of this year, if not as strongly as previously expected. Valuations are reasonable and I still don’t see us heading all the way back to March 2009 lows.

On balance with the portfolio still up for the year & outperforming I feel comfortable getting more defensive, reducing my longs and looking for shorting trades whilst waiting for possible exceptional buying opportunities and a clearer view of future prospects.

So on Friday afternoon I made the following trades:

Sold 2000 shares in Barclays @ 290p
Closed Man Group position, selling 1425 shares @ 239p
Sold 4500 shares in Lloyds @ 56.1p
Closed final Polo Resources spreadbet, £500 per pt @ 3.6p (still long 250k shares)
Sold 275 Soco International shares @ 1609p
Sold £475 per pt in Unitech Corp Parks between 26p & 27p
Sold £20 per pt in West China Cement @ 505p

I opened a FTSE 100 short spreadbet, selling £6 per pt short at an average of 5159

Overall that gets the portfolio around 25% into cash, with some downside protection, a more comfortable position. I am now running current positions with much tighter stop losses and wait to see what the coming week will produce, there is sure to be plenty of action!

Since I started investing my most frequent investing mistakes have not been buying the wrong shares or not buying a share at all. On the contrary it has been in selling existing holdings at the wrong time that has cost me the most money.

Either by holding on too long and selling the entire holding at the bottom or, worse, selling out of a share just before it sets off on a dizzying upward rise.

West China Cement (WCC) was almost the next in a long line of selling mistakes. I closed my WCC position on Friday morning after West China Cement said they were going to delist from AIM, at the same time as listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. I anticipated that other UK investors would now have to sell their holdings causing some weakness in the share price. As it fell back around 10p quickly after my sale I was feeling smug and justified in my decision.

That was where the price fall stopped though and there were clearly buyers mopping up all the shares they could get their hands on and the price started moving back up. In the past I might have stuck to my original decision but experience has taught me (expensively) to quickly change tack when things don’t go as anticipated. I was lucky enough to get back in just above where I had sold (with a 50% larger holding than before). Its up 20% since then and I see this as a hold right into the HK listing.

Elsewhere the portfolio is bouncing back very nicely with the general market. My re-entry in Dart Group (DTG) looks well timed, up nearly 20% in very short order - hopefully more to come there. Polo Resources (PRL) is slowly coming to the boil, given its discount to NAV and the underlying coal & uranium stories I am expecting this one to be a real winner. Finally International Ferro (IFL) has zoomed up strongly over the past week with the FeCr price on the rise and demand situation improving, the strategy of buying it as it dipped down to 30p and below is now paying off handsomely.

The market looks great right now, with plenty of people calling it higher in the short term. A little too good in fact so I am starting to exercise some caution in what I buy and looking to take some profits where some shares seem to have got ahead of themselves. I’d like to have some cash available for when the next sell off comes along.

Nice to see the banks (LLOY) (BARC) and Man Group (EMG) getting a pop over the last couple of days. The market generally has perked up and some of the other holdings in the portfolio have been marked up too. However it could just as easily be straight back down in the next couple of days though so I remain cautious for now and have actually increased my cash holdings a little bit today.

I did a tidying up exercise with Vislink (VLK) and Renovo (RNVO), two small positions treading water now converted into cash ready to invest in the next opportunity I spot. Also I traded out of my CSR (CSR) spreadbet, selling £10 per pt @ 500p for a quick 7% profit. I reckon it might struggle to get past this level for now but I still hold 1000 shares so am bullish over the medium term. The last trade was adding another £500 per pt of Polo Resources (PRL) which is still trading at a significant discount to its NAV and the more time that passes the closer Polo get to realising some of that value in the form of cold, hard cash. I am happy to be patient with this one as the rewards could be significant and downside from here looks limited.

One position that I do want to flag up is Huntsworth (HNT), the global public relations and healthcare communications group. I hold 13,350 shares at an average around the current share price, 63p. They are reporting final year results next Wednesday, Feb 24th. It looks cheap on fundamentals with a PE of just over 8 and a dividend yield of 4.2%, plus the tone from management has noticeably picked up since the summer with increasing confidence in their future prospects. What could really drive earnings growth over the next couple of years is the management reorganisation that Huntsworth have executed in 2009, I expect to see it impact organic growth starting in 2010 and accelerating into 2011. The share price has done nothing for the last few months & I am hoping that the results next week will put it on a few more investors radars.

The market has been all over the place, mostly in a downward trajectory, since the last update and it looks like this volatility could be here for a while longer although today is very quiet with the US market closed. Overall the portfolio remains positive for the year (as I write this at least!) but well off the high it hit in January. The general sell off and a couple of stock specific factors are behind the decline.

Plenty of trading since my last post, the twitter feed and the trade page details it all.

RCG (RCG) has been a big faller over the last couple of weeks off the back of the Nina Wang / Tony Chan trial result. I decided to maintain my holding & ignore the volatility. The fundamentals remain excellent and the share rating paltry considering the performance so far and the future potential of the business. At some point the share register issues will be resolved and I’d then expect the shares to be quickly re-rated.

I have taken a decent sized position in Quintain Estates (QED) recently. This was flagged up recently on the Motely Fool discussion boards and it looks to be a low risk property play with no funding issues trading at a large discount to NAV. The price has ticked up a little bit over the past week and I expect it to gather further positive momentum over the next few weeks. There is still a seller about though so there may be a chance for further buying on any weakness.

I have also dipped back into Man Group (EMG) which has fallen a long, long way over the last few months. Its flagship fund continues to badly under perform but I expect that trend to reverse at some point and overall Man is a solid business that looks too cheap to me at these levels. A tight stop on this one though as it could fall further if the general market heads down.

Overall I am now keeping a closer eye on certain positions with an eye to minimising losses / taking profits and retreating back into cash given the more negative tone to the market. There may be some further downside to come but overall I remain bullish for 2010, especially for the core portfolio holdings where there looks to be some real good value and hopefully positive newsflow in the coming months.

I took my profits in a couple of shares this morning. Both have had great runs over the last couple of months & I think there are other opportunities out there that offer the possibility of greater returns from here.

First I sold my last portion of Globus Maritime (GLBS). 3,400 shares @ 103.5p. A 61% profit (£1300) in just over 2 months is an excellent return but over 100p Globus looks fair value to me. Of course the management are sat on a decent cash pile now & if they put that to work buying some good value ships I will take another look.

Secondly I closed my Geopark Holdings (GPK) trade, taking a 19% profit in just over a month (£660). This was a momentum trade and its gone up virtually in a straight line. Its now hit my price target and is close to its all time high at these levels so I’ve closed the position for now. It remains on the watchlist and on a decent pullback or a break through that all time high price I may buy back in.

Also one of my picks for 2010, Alterian (ALN), released their IMS today. They warned that Q4 revenue & profit may be below expectations & the shares have been marked down nearly 20%. I think this is overdone given the growth prospects going forward so I have picked up 6000 shares at an average of 156p. I might be catching a falling knife here so will be running a tight stop.

I have also closed out half of the FTSE 100 short, buying £2 per pt @ 5506 as the market has come back strongly from its lows this morning.

Kryso Resources (KYS), International Ferro (IFL) & Unitech Corporate Parks (UCP) all look strong today with good buying interest.