Initial CapitalPortfolio ValueCashTotalP&LP&L %2011 P&L %
£100,000£260,949.09£86,326.45£347,275.54£247,275.54247.28%12.42%

A lucky escape

March 8th, 2010 by RunningCapital

Since I started investing my most frequent investing mistakes have not been buying the wrong shares or not buying a share at all. On the contrary it has been in selling existing holdings at the wrong time that has cost me the most money.

Either by holding on too long and selling the entire holding at the bottom or, worse, selling out of a share just before it sets off on a dizzying upward rise.

West China Cement (WCC) was almost the next in a long line of selling mistakes. I closed my WCC position on Friday morning after West China Cement said they were going to delist from AIM, at the same time as listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. I anticipated that other UK investors would now have to sell their holdings causing some weakness in the share price. As it fell back around 10p quickly after my sale I was feeling smug and justified in my decision.

That was where the price fall stopped though and there were clearly buyers mopping up all the shares they could get their hands on and the price started moving back up. In the past I might have stuck to my original decision but experience has taught me (expensively) to quickly change tack when things don’t go as anticipated. I was lucky enough to get back in just above where I had sold (with a 50% larger holding than before). Its up 20% since then and I see this as a hold right into the HK listing.

Elsewhere the portfolio is bouncing back very nicely with the general market. My re-entry in Dart Group (DTG) looks well timed, up nearly 20% in very short order - hopefully more to come there. Polo Resources (PRL) is slowly coming to the boil, given its discount to NAV and the underlying coal & uranium stories I am expecting this one to be a real winner. Finally International Ferro (IFL) has zoomed up strongly over the past week with the FeCr price on the rise and demand situation improving, the strategy of buying it as it dipped down to 30p and below is now paying off handsomely.

The market looks great right now, with plenty of people calling it higher in the short term. A little too good in fact so I am starting to exercise some caution in what I buy and looking to take some profits where some shares seem to have got ahead of themselves. I’d like to have some cash available for when the next sell off comes along.

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Posted in Shares

2 Responses

  1. David Jones

    Good call on WCC. I can’t see any advantage in aa HK quote myself - and maybe it’s only today holders have started thinking about that

  2. RunningCapital

    Thanks David.

    Surprised you don’t see any advantage in a HK quote, given the company is based in China and the Hong Kong market will give it a higher rating (based on other listed Chinese cement makers). The recent move up is all to do with this process in my view. Its still cheap on a relative PER basis but, according to broker comment this morning, is getting to fair value based on book value. Hence why I took some profits but kept 2/3 of the position - could still be a fair way to run.

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